Thursday, January 26, 2017

Seeking Truth

Science is one of the few institutions remaining that seeks the truth. It is a highly effective tool that simply wants to figure out how the universe works. It is self-correcting, building on the knowledge of those who went before, and constantly improves on that knowledge as new technology comes along, such as bigger telescopes, or more sensitive instruments that let us see the world in better detail. It is a system that works because it is based on hard evidence.[1]

This quote from the article by Bob McDonald, Science “Trumped”' by belief, highlights the attitude that truth, to those who defer to science is objective and factual. While truth, if tainted by belief is faulty and of no account. I didn’t live in the dark ages, but back enough that when I attended high school I was taught that the atom was the smallest thing there was. At that time, I was taught objective scientific truth, which turned out later to be wrong. To McDonald scientific truth is very elastic, but still better than belief. His praise of science as “one of the few institutions remaining that seeks the truth” is somewhat naïve. Below are some quotes on science:

Proofs have two features that do not exist in science:  They are final, and they are binary.  Once a theorem is proven, it will forever be true and there will be nothing in the future that will threaten its status as a proven theorem (unless a flaw is discovered in the proof).  Apart from a discovery of an error, a proven theorem will forever and always be a proven theorem.
In contrast, all scientific knowledge is tentative and provisional, and nothing is final.  There is no such thing as final proven knowledge in science.  The currently accepted theory of a phenomenon is simply the best explanation for it among all available alternatives.  Its status as the accepted theory is contingent on what other theories are available and might suddenly change tomorrow if there appears a better theory or new evidence that might challenge the accepted theory.  No knowledge or theory (which embodies scientific knowledge) is final.[2]

Black/white absolute truth doesn’t exist in real science. Many people state that science “seeks truth,” and it does, if we do not ascribe moral qualities to the word “truth.” Actually, science seeks evidence to support or refute a hypothesis (or some other scientific principle like a theory). It’s all about the evidence (and the quality thereof), not about proving that it’s either this or that.
Part of the problem, amongst both “pro-science” and anti-science types is that they both think that science is some magical word to either be loved or despised depending on the answer it provides. But science is, in reality, a coherent method to find an answer to a question about the natural universe, but it is not itself the answer. Science is a systematic and logical process, using the scientific method, that finds and builds data, and eventually knowledge, into testable explanations and predictions about the natural universe. It is not a magical word that implies truth, but it is a rigorous process to separate meaningless information from high quality evidence in support or refutation of an explanation of the natural world.[3] 

According to a popular picture, science progresses toward truth by adding true and eliminating false beliefs from our best scientific theories. By making these theories more and more verisimilar, that is, truthlike, scientific knowledge grows over time (e.g., Popper 1963). If this picture is correct, then over time scientific knowledge will become more objective, that is, more faithful to facts. However, scientific theories often change, and sometimes several theories compete for the place of the best scientific account of the world.[4]

Whatever it is, it should come as no surprise that finding a positive characterization of what makes science objective is hard. If we knew an answer, we would have done no less than solve the problem of induction (because we would know what procedures or forms of organization are responsible for the success of science). Work on this problem is an ongoing project, and so is the quest for understanding scientific objectivity.[5]

McDonald writes that science “is self-correcting, building on the knowledge of those who went before, and constantly improves on that knowledge as new technology comes along...” This is of course true, science changes as new evidence comes to light. At the point that new evidence is accepted, the old truth becomes false. So in the words of Pilate, “What is truth?” To those who believe everything science says, truth, is whatever science says, until more evidence comes along to suggest otherwise. McDonald believes that science is objective and true because it is based on hard evidence. There is more than enough hard evidence to suggest that current scientific truths will become obsolete or changed with the finding of newer evidence.

Each person’s previous experiences will have led to the development of particular concepts of things, which will influence what objects can be seen and what they will appear to be. As a consequence, it is not unusual for two investigators to disagree about their observations if the investigators are looking at the data according to different conceptual frameworks. Resolution of such conflicts requires that the investigators clarify for each other the concepts that they have in mind.[6]

With the changes that have taken place in physics in this century, however, the historicality of what counts as a fact in the natural sciences has been made evident and has raised the problem of just what facts are if they can change from time to time.[7]

Roughly speaking, the natural sciences are considered "hard", whereas the social sciences are usually described as "soft".
Precise definitions vary, but features often cited as characteristic of hard science include producing testable predictions, performing controlled experiments, relying on quantifiable data and mathematical models, a high degree of accuracy and objectivity, higher levels of consensus, faster progression of the field, greater explanatory success, and generally applying a purer form of the scientific method.[8]

Despite the volume of protestations from climate change scientists, their objectivity is less than perfect. It is obvious that climatic conditions in many parts of the world are changing in some way, but what is not obvious is the cause. Scientists touting anthropomorphic causes are blind to any other option. The foundation of their science is emotionality. Fanatical science is not good science, it is based on fear and panic. It appears that much of the evidence supporting anthropomorphic climate change is actually soft evidence. The statement that “97% of scientists believe that humans are the cause of climate change,” at best is soft evidence, if not deceitful. One of the main factors of evidence becoming hard evidence, is the consensus of scientists within that specific field of study. Which could be translated as, scientists of like mind support each other’s belief. That strikes me as “group think” and possibbly collusion.

In order of declining value, items on the soft-evidence scale include:
  1. Authoritative opinion. (However: remember, even at the top of the soft-evidence scale, it’s still just soft evidence.)
  2. Non-authoritative opinion.
  3. Random guessing.
  4. Seeing who argues the loudest and/or the longest. (This is worse than nothing, because it gives the biggest advantage to the biggest scoundrel, and just encourages bad behavior.)[9]

Science tells of the mini ice age; taking that as a starting point the world has definitely got a lot warmer. There is hard evidence that at one time the islands in the arctic were tropical, they are very much colder now. Egypt was once a fertile area, whereas now it is predominantly desert. The Sahara has been encroaching southward for centuries. I read from some scientist that volcanic eruptions have had little impact on GHG’s. The cause behind the accumulation of GHG is human It seems to me that there are many more questions that need to be answered before accusing humanity of ruining the cosmos. Human activity contributes to GHG production, but to say that it is the only factor or even the major factor is irresponsible and misleading. If the attitudes and practices of climate change advocates were analyzed it would show that the movement is a cult. The hysteria and panic behind the evangelical rhetoric of climate change advocates suggests a fear of being found out. The certainty of their claims, climate change scientists preach, may indicate closed minds rather than reality. It is stated that, peer reviews change theories into hard evidence:

Scholarly peer review (also known as refereeing) is the process of subjecting an author's scholarly work, research, or ideas to the scrutiny of others who are experts in the same field… Peer review requires a community of experts in a given (and often narrowly defined) field, who are qualified and able to perform reasonably impartial review. … Peer review is generally considered necessary to academic quality and is used in most major scientific journals, but does by no means prevent publication of all invalid research.[10]

The peer review process is important, and people place great confidence in it. It verifies the process of validation followed by a peer when testing a theory, and is appropriate concludes that the theory is based on hard evidence. Peer review is a valid process in every discipline and all sectors of research. Scientific theories are said to be based on hard evidence through the process of peer reviews. Accordingly, I suggest that there is more hard evidence for creation than evolution. Over centuries scholars and researchers have reached a high level of consensus regarding the evidences of creation, to attest that the theory of creation is based on hard evidence. Like in the field of science, peer review in the field of religion is restricted to its specific field. Evolutionary scientists may not agree with the creationist theory, but they have to accept that it is based on hard evidence, since it has undergone centuries of peer review. Evolutionary scientists say assert that they deal in hard evidence, and creationists rely on faith. Evolutionary scientists cannot accept peer reviews within their field and deny it for creationist in their field; that would be tantamount to saying that, what they say is true, because they say it is true.  Peer review is no more than having other scientists who think alike approve what they collectively believe. Unlike Mr. McDonald, I expect that belief has more to do with what evidence scientists find than that which is produced objectively.

Loeb contends. “One would have naively expected scientific activity to be open minded to critical questioning of its architectural design, but the reality is that conservatism prevails within the modern academic setting.”
In other words, the best possible source of fresh ideas — the youngsters whose brains are not yet fossilized by standard dogmas — are ostracized or bullied if they challenge the prevailing paradigms. And scientists wonder why they have so many problems that stubbornly remain so hard to solve.[11]

Based on hard evidence there was a tower of Babel. Based on biblical research the tower of Babel was the enterprise of people who believed they could do anything, their objective was to build a tower reaching to heaven. The attitude and self-importance of the people engineering the project was idolatry. People who take it upon themselves to improve nature, or interrupt natural processes are in the same class as the designers of the tower. Idolatry is not only bowing to manmade images, it is also self-importance or self-worship. Idolatry can also be the all-consuming investment in a cause. Some groups championing climate change have used deceitful practices and false information to support their cause, stating that the end justifies the means.
                         
Based on the many changes in science, and the acknowledgement of current scientists that present “truths” will change as new evidence comes into play, why should anyone believe the hype of human impact on GHG’s? Behind the hysteria promoting human causes of GHG’s, there may be the need to gain funding for programs in which the scientists are employed. Could it be that their self-interest is driving the cause, not the desire to improve the global climate? It is the flimflam and hysteria around the doom of the world due to CO2 that keeps Greenpeace and other associations afloat. The evidence that human beings are the cause of climate change is not sound science.
The contention that human emissions are now the dominant influence on climate is simply a hypothesis, rather than a universally accepted scientific theory. It is therefore correct, indeed verging on compulsory in the scientific tradition, to be skeptical of those who express certainty that “the science is settled” and “the debate is over”.[12]

On “belief”, that which is disdained by disciples of science; I consider belief to be a fundamental constituent of human life. Without belief humanity would become animalistic and degenerate. I don’t just believe in everyday events like the sun coming up in the morning, or that spring follows winter; I believe that God created the universe and everything in it. I believe that Jesus walked this earth as the human representation of God. I believe all people have hope through the sacrificial death of Jesus. I also believe that Jesus said, “If you continue in my word, you are truly my disciples; and you will know the truth, and the truth will make you free.[13] Jesus prayed to God, “Sanctify them in the truth; your word is truth.[14] The psalmist and other writers of scripture point to the universe as evidence of God. The collection of scriptures come to us from antiquity. They are not scientific texts, but they mention things, which at their writing, were unknown to people. “By faith we understand that the worlds were prepared by the word of God, so that what is seen was not made out of things which are visible.[15] The author may have been schooled in the Greek classics, but the concept of atoms did not emerge in modern society until the sixteenth century, interesting.

I believe that death and decay came into the world because of human pride. The cycle of death and decay is as natural as life. It is idolatry, to presume that humans can stop the process of nature, and that we are somehow greater than the Creator. As much as some scientists think they are capable of reversing the natural trend toward decay, they are sadly mistaken. However, believing that the world follows its designed course, does not give people the right to produce things harmful to life on earth, or the environment. Humans are caretakers of the world and must behave responsibly. Special interest groups do not have the right to impose their beliefs on everyone else. Special interest groups use saleable causes to further their own interests. It’s time to put in place checks and balances to prevent special interest groups from pushing their ideals down everyone’s throat. It’s not enough for scientists to have peers vet their proposals; if their theories cannot stand scrutiny from other disciplines they should be discarded. The world and climate are multi-faceted, and no single branch of science should have the right to force its theories on others without serious vetting by all. I think that governments and society should all read Hans Christian Andersen’s, “The Emperor's New Clothes”.



[1] Science 'Trumped' by belief: Bob McDonald, CBC News Posted: Jan 20, 2017 3:40 PM ET
[2] Psychology Today, Common misconceptions about science I: “Scientific proof”, Satoshi Kanazawa
[3] Science is not based on absolutes–Richard Dawkins proves that, 2013/08/13 The Original Skeptical Raptor
[4] Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Scientific Objectivity, First published Mon Aug 25, 2014
[5] Ibid
[6] Scientific American. The ideal of objectivity. By Janet D. Stemwedel on February 26, 2013
[7] https://www.rasch.org
[8] https://en.wikipedia.org
[9] Soft versus Hard Evidence; Appeal to Authority etc. John Denker
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholarly_peer_review
[11] Science News, Replacing paradigms requires open minds, by Tom Siegfried

[12] Dr. Patrick Moore, (Founder of Greenpeace) 2015 Annual GWPF Lecture Institute of Mechanical Engineers, London 14 October 2015
[13] Joh 8:31, 32
[14] Joh 17:17 
[15] Heb 11:3  

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